Earlier this month, I predicted that the average cash game traffic on WSOP NV would gradually increase and ultimately surpass the 100 barrier. I was correct in this prediction.
However, since reaching its peak at 102 on September 5th, the volume on Nevada’s premier regulated iPoker site has dramatically decreased. To add to this, Nevada’s iPoker market has significantly underperformed compared to the global industry, which has remained fairly stable.
My theory that WSOP NV would have a prolonged upswing has been proven wrong.
An essential quality for any analyst is the capability to reassess their forecasts in light of unforeseen variables. With regards to Nevada’s online poker environment, there are several elements that I initially overlooked, making it stand out from the rest of the iPoker market.
When considered collectively, the variables could potentially elucidate the ongoing struggles of Nevada’s iPoker landscape throughout September.
Why Nevada is different
Forecasting traffic trends for sites based in Nevada can be a challenging task. This is largely due to the numerous unique aspects that set the Silver State apart from the rest of the world.
To mention a few:
- The iPoker industry in Nevada is not affected by the same seasonal trends as the rest of the online poker world, thanks to the state’s extremely hot summers and more enjoyable springs and falls.
- Every year, Las Vegas is the venue for the largest poker event in the world. This year’s live WSOP at the Rio caused a 60% increase in traffic on WSOP NV in June, a month when worldwide traffic usually drops to the lowest point of the year.
- Despite Las Vegas being a year-round tourism hotspot, most of the major live poker events in fall occur outside of this city.
- Due to Nevada’s iPoker market being one of the smallest globally, it experiences heightened volatility.
- The iPoker industry in Nevada is just a year old, making it extremely difficult to forecast annual trends solely based on historical data.
The peculiarities of Nevada’s poker market, coupled with the majority of the online poker attention being focused on New Jersey, begin to explain why Nevada’s iPoker industry is experiencing a downturn. This downturn is happening even in the face of WSOP.com’s strongest promotional attempts.
Cash game traffic reaches four month low
Data collected from PokerFuse Pro through PokerScout indicates that the 7-day cash game averages are currently at their lowest since May 20th. This date was a week prior to the commencement of the live WSOP.
Volume as of September 16th:
- WSOP NV: 86
- Ultimate Poker NV: 65
- Real Gaming: 0
In the past two weeks, WSOP NV has experienced a concerning 14 percent drop in traffic. Meanwhile, the volume on Ultimate Poker has remained consistent during the same period.
Comparatively, since September 3rd, the global market has seen a gain of 1.1 percent.
Real Gaming has not yet obtained any noticeable traffic. Their 24-hour peak traffic has declined by 50%, dropping from their previous maximum of 6 to 3.
Considering the current situation, with the upcoming launch of an 888 branded site that will share liquidity with WSOP NV in the next few months, it might be wise for Real Gaming to consider wrapping up after the conclusion of its $100,000 Giveaway promo. It’s something to think about.
Tournament turnouts nothing to write home about
From a positive viewpoint, at least the major tournament traffic on WSOP NV remained robust.
The first two events of Ultimate Poker’s Big 25 mini-tournament series surpassed expectations, exceeding their $2,500 guarantees by at least 16 percent, making them a resounding success. This news certainly adds a brighter note.
Here’s a brief overview of how the major events of last weekend performed in comparison to the previous week:
- This week’s version of the WSOP $55 R&A Weekend Warm-up $5,000 Guarantee had a slight $131.50 overlay, but it still managed to attract $180 more in buy-ins compared to last week’s tournament.
- WSOP $15,000 Guarantee: The biggest weekly MTT of WSOP barely met its guarantee by an extra $725, falling short of last week’s performance by a single buy-in valued at $185.
- Ultimate Poker’s $10,000 Sunday: A consistent trend has been observed in UP’s Sunday Major with a considerable overlay of $2,247. This was still a notable improvement from the $3,266 that the site paid out on September 7th.
Check out PocketFives weekly tournament review for a complete rundown.
WSOP celebrates its first birthday in grand fashion
Despite my reservations, similar to those Ultimate Poker should have about making guarantees, I find it difficult to imagine that WSOP NV’s traffic will decline significantly further. This is mainly because the site is on the verge of launching a series of new promotions to mark its first anniversary in Nevada.
Here’s a preview of what players can anticipate to see on the network starting from September 19th:
- There is a 100% reload bonus up to $400 available in September. It starts on September 19th and ends on the 28th.
- Starting at 9:19 am on 9/19, all tournament entry fees will be discounted by 50% for the next 24 hours. This is not a random timing, it’s intentional.
- The WSOP’s flagship MTT scheduled for September 21st will include a $25,000 guarantee, which is $10,000 higher than the norm.
- From the 19th to the 27th, 19 random players will be chosen daily to receive 919 APP player loyalty points. Also, during this period, all players will have the opportunity to earn double points.
- The celebrations will end with a tournament series comprised of nine events, guaranteeing a total of $70,000.
The celebratory initiatives of WSOP echo their cross-promotional activities during the live Series, demonstrating their dedication to expanding their brand in Nevada.
However, in a state where forecasting trends is as challenging as achieving the nut flush on a matched board, it’s uncertain what impact the site’s promotional explosion will have on average cash games.
We’ll see.
