Despite it being a midterm election year, Sheldon Adelson, the Chairman of Las Vegas Sands Corp., is not holding back on spending. The Daily Beast reports that he plans to distribute approximately $100 million during this election cycle to assist Republicans in reclaiming the Senate.
Adelson’s proposed ban on online gambling, one of his cherished projects, could make significant progress with a Republican-controlled Senate. However, for his dream to materialize, a change in the Executive Branch will probably also be necessary.
However, even with the Republican control of the Senate, it is not guaranteed that Adelson’s proposed online gambling ban will reach the president.
Firstly, given the existing filibuster rules, a substantial Republican majority in the Senate would probably be necessary to pass a ban on Internet gambling through the upper house.
Secondly, the vote is unlikely to strictly adhere to party lines. Certain Democrats are expected to support the Adelson ban, with Senator Diane Feinstein of California already expressing her support. Conversely, several Republicans are anticipated to strongly oppose it based on ideological reasons.
In essence, the control of the Senate by either the Republicans or Democrats after the November mid-terms shouldn’t significantly impact online gambling. The probable scenario is that progress will continue at the state level, while the federal government continues to be stuck in deadlock.
Additionally, keep in mind that Adelson’s outspokenness extends to various issues beyond online gambling. It’s unclear how he’s ranking these issues when deciding which candidates to support.
However, don’t be complacent! If Adelson’s candidates win, it would still provide positive momentum for his campaign to prohibit online gambling.
The Senate in 2015
What are the current odds that Adelson’s wish will come true and the Senate will flip to become a legislative body controlled by Republicans?
Who you ask determines that.
The “UpShot” blog on The New York Times predicts a 67% chance for Republicans to gain control of the Senate.
According to Nate Silver on FiveThirtyEight.com, it’s closer to 60/40.
According to The Huffington Post, the Democrats are predicted to maintain control by a narrow 56/44 margin.
The Republicans have a 63/37 advantage according to The Washington Post.
Sam Wang from Princeton, who surpassed Nate Silver in predicting the 2012 Senate elections, gives the Democrats a 65% chance of retaining the Senate.
What have the various Internet Senate Predictive Models taught us? They’ve shown us that the control of the Senate following the 2014 elections will be determined by a very narrow margin.
Online gaming is not a partisan issue
Even if Adelson succeeds in assisting the Republican party to gain Senate control, as previously mentioned, it’s doubtful that the new Senate would pass an online gambling ban. This is because several key Republicans are likely to oppose his proposed legislation.
Senator Rand Paul is one individual who would ideologically object to this, and his colleague, Senator Mitch McConnell from the Blue Grass State, who currently serves as the Senate Minority Leader and aspires to be Senate Majority Leader, may possibly be another. This is due to Kentucky’s substantial reliance on horseracing, including online horseracing, which would not be affected by Adelson’s legislation. This could potentially represent an unacceptable level of hypocrisy.
McConnell is crucial for the Republicans’ success in the Senate, as he would assume the role of Majority Leader, making him a vital component of the Adelson machine. However, it’s uncertain whether he supports an online gambling ban or not.
We have yet to hear from the two Georgia Senators, Saxby Chambliss and Johnny Isakson, as well as Mark Kirk of Illinois. It’s worth noting that both Georgia and Illinois have online lottery sales, which would be prohibited under Adelson’s ban.
Alternatively, consider Nevada Senator Dean Heller. How would he justify to his constituents his decision to repeal the existing law that allows online poker in their state?
Adelson’s impact
While I don’t dispute the Daily Beast’s claim that “Adelson is a hands-on donor,” I must respectfully disagree with the latter part of their assertion that he “makes decisions carefully.”
In 2012, Adelson heavily funded Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign, which was his first choice for the presidency. Later, he reversed his decision and donated a similar sum to Mitt Romney’s campaign and his Super PACs. It’s noteworthy that a significant part of Adelson’s funding to Gingrich’s Super PAC was used to tarnish Romney’s reputation.
Adelson has also been generously funding any lobbyist ready to publicly denounce online gambling. However, all he’s received in return are some weak op-eds and a group of commentators who unintentionally make arguments in favor of regulation.
Adelson definitely has the financial resources to sway elections, and appears to subscribe to the belief that any problem can be resolved by applying large amounts of money to it. However, in reality, this approach does not always yield the desired results.
