Unfathomable.
I’m struggling to find a more fitting word to encapsulate what just transpired at this year’s WSOP Main Event.
Those who have even a slight interest in the poker world likely already know that Mark Newhouse has made history as the first player to reach the final table twice since the inception of the November Nine era, doing so in back-to-back years.
“You might argue, ‘So what? Haven’t other players managed to secure back-to-back titles?'”
Although that may indeed be the case, the situation has drastically altered. In fact, I would go as far as to contend that Newhouse’s achievement is the most significant in the history of WSOP.
Let me clarify. But first, let’s delve into the background of the man who accomplished the impossible.
So just who is Mark Newhouse?
Mark, born on March 11, 1985, grew up in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. However, it was not until his enrollment at Appalachian State University that he discovered his passion for poker.
Newhouse, like many other emerging talents of that time, began his journey in small-stakes home games before delving into the online world. With an innate talent for the game, young Mark swiftly climbed the online hierarchy and within a matter of months, he was dominating all but the top-tier Limit Hold’em games.
Like many others of his generation, Mark would ultimately abandon college after a year and a half to pursue a full-time career in poker. This seemingly bold move paid off almost instantly.
Mark clinched his first and only title, the 2006 Borgata Poker Open WPT Championship event, at the young age of 21, earning a handsome $1.52 million in the process.
Then came the fallout.
Over the next few years, Newhouse, a high-profile player, traversed the WSOP and WPT circuits in pursuit of another major title. However, apart from winning a few satellites and a single local tournament, he couldn’t replicate the success he had achieved in 2006.
Mark’s situation was further worsened by his irresponsible handling of his finances, quickly leading him into serious debt. He openly admitted, “I completely lost control, spent everything, and ended up deeply in debt.”
However, with age comes maturity, and by 2013, Newhouse had acquired the necessary composure to thrive in the poker world.
In July 2013, Mark joined 6,300 other contenders and registered for the WSOP. Despite his significant win in 2006, Newhouse was considered a wildcard at the tables since his victory had largely faded into oblivion. However, he reclaimed recognition when he skillfully secured a spot in the November Nine.
In the 2013 WSOP Final Table, Newhouse started off with the least number of chips. Despite doubling them up early on, he eventually lost to the winner, Ryan Riess, shortly afterwards.
However, with over $733k that he won for his finish, Mark managed to clear his remaining debts, finally laying to rest the remnants of his reckless past.
Newhouse, who initially had a disappointing WSOP without cashing a single event before the Main, is now back on poker’s largest platform as a returning member of the November Nine.
How Newhouse’s accomplishment stacks up
Five accomplishments stand out to me when I reflect on the greatest heroics from the WSOP Main Event:
- In 1976 and 1977, Doyle Brunson won consecutive titles. Johnny Chan followed suit in 1987 and 1988, and ended up as the runner-up to Phil Hellmuth in 1989. Stu Unger, after winning the title in 1980 and 1981, struggled with cocaine addiction for years before making a comeback and winning a third title in 1997. “Action” Dan Harrington claimed the title in 1995 and also made back-to-back final table appearances in 2003 and 2004, finishing third and fourth respectively. Greg Raymer won the title in 2004 and finished 25th among 5,619 players in 2005.
That’s an impressive list. However, even if Newhouse merely achieves his ninth place finish again this November, it could be argued that his accomplishment surpasses all of them, for two exact reasons:
- The fields of modern WSOP Main Event typically exceed 6,000 players, making them colossal.
- Players today are significantly more skilled.
Doyle Brunson, who is arguably the best No Limit player of the previous generation, triumphed over groups of 22 and 34 to secure the title. Meanwhile, Stu Unger defeated larger fields of 73, 75 and 312.
Chan faced a challenging path, defeating 151 competitors in 1987 and 166 in 1988. His near victory in 1989, where he outperformed 176 participants, is also noteworthy.
Harrington’s achievement is particularly remarkable given that it happened at the beginning of the poker boom. Despite this, in 2003, “Action” Dan only managed to navigate through a field of 839, though his fourth place finish in 2004 (from a pool of 2,576) is undeniably impressive.
Then there’s Raymer, who surpassed Harrington to clinch the 2004 title before embarking on an iconic quest to become the first reigning champion to secure a second title since Johnny Chan. It’s a feat that many believe will likely never be repeated.
Lastly, we have Newhouse, who secured the 9th position among 6,352 players in 2013 and managed to rank at least 9th (presumably much higher given his substantial stack and experience) among 6,683 players in 2014.
Difficult decision. Let’s look at what the calculations suggest.
Assuming all WSOP participants have the same skill level (which is not the case), these are the respective percentage probabilities of each player on our list accomplishing what they did.
- Brunson’s consecutive titles: 1 in 748
- Chan’s almost third consecutive win: 1 in 2,258,824
- Unger’s consecutive titles: 1 in 5,474
- Harrington’s back-to-back finishes in third and fourth place: 1 in 180,088.
- In 2004-05, Raymer accomplished a feat with odds of 1 in 579,006.
Purely from a statistical standpoint, Chan’s incredible achievement of becoming a three-time champion, even with much smaller fields, remains the most astonishing feat in the history of the WSOP Main Event.
Did Newhouse lay a worse beating on Chan than Matt Damon did when he 5-bet bluffed him in Rounders?
From a purely statistical perspective, Newhouse’s chances of finishing ninth last year and at least ninth this year are 1 in 524,079, which is not yet achieved. This is approximately equal to what Raymer accomplished, but it doesn’t come close to Chan’s achievement.
However, if Newhouse were to win, the odds would dramatically increase to 1 in 4,716,967, surpassing Chan’s record by a margin of more than two to one.
This means that Mark would need to at least finish in second place to top the list of most unlikely achievements in WSOP history.
No pressure or anything.
Considering that many of today’s top players have easy access to poker books, training videos, TV broadcasts, software, and can play extensive games online, shouldn’t Newhouse earn some credit for successfully maneuvering through a pool of highly competitive players?
Relatively speaking, the fields that Chan and Harrington navigated were as gentle as a newborn puppy. Granted, there were a few respectable old-school professionals in the mix, but during that time, the novices didn’t stand a chance. It’s not the same situation today.
Considering this additional variable, I am almost entirely convinced that Newhouse’s actions over the past two years constitute arguably the most remarkable WSOP Main Event story ever shared. And this belief holds true even before a single card is dealt this coming November.
