WSOP NV deserves a lot of praise. From May 21 to August 14, it maintained an impressive record in the Silver State’s iPoker market. It had an average of over 100 cash-game players every single day.
Contrast this with the two months before, when the averages for 7 and 30 days often fell below 100.
It seems that the lingering impacts of WSOP NV’s cross-promotion during the live Series have finally come to an end. The network saw significant drops in traffic over the last two weeks, primarily due to a lack of appealing promotions and reduced attempts to boost brand recognition.
The positive aspect is, theoretically, late-August should represent the final occasion in 2014 where liquidity falls under three figures.
Cash-game Traffic Hit Three Month Low
Data collected on PokerFuse Pro via PokerScout indicates that the 7-day averages for Nevada’s two primary online poker networks are as follows, with last week’s figures provided in parenthesis:
- WSOP NV: 96 (102)
- Ultimate Poker: 68 (70)
Nevada’s largely overlooked third iPoker site, Real Gaming, has recently been experiencing a slight increase in activity. This modest growth can probably be linked to the network’s Real50 $100k Giveaway promo. This promotion offers its highest-ranking players monthly cash rewards amounting to $7,000.
Moreover, the three highest annual income earners will share $16,000. This is quite a generous offer, given that Real Gaming has almost no available cash for games. According to PokerScout, peak traffic in 24 hours is roughly 5, with the 7-day average fluctuating between 0 and 1.
Taking into account that the promotion awards cash prizes to its top 50 earners, theoretically, players could deposit $50, play the required number of hands to meet the minimum loyalty score each month, and gather free money.
Now, let’s return to reality.
Over the past seven days, WSOP experienced a 5.9% decrease in volume, and a 12.7% decrease over the past 14 days. On the other hand, Ultimate Poker performed much better, only losing 2.8% of its liquidity in the past week. In fact, since August 4, it has gained an average of 6.3% more liquidity.
The global market has significantly outperformed Nevada, remaining fairly stable since the 11th and showing a 1.3% increase in the last two weeks. Although this might not appear substantial, any positive movement is welcome considering the market’s poor performance during spring and early summer.
Okay, so what made Ultimate Poker significantly more successful than its primary competitor? Besides its somewhat puzzling APP Rising Ranks promotion, there’s not much of note happening on WSOP.com.
The Turbo SNG Leaderboards of WSOP, applicable only to 9-man single table tournaments, turned out to be unsuccessful. Its welcome promotion was less favorable compared to UP’s and the one offered during the live WSOP network. Furthermore, despite launching numerous tournament series in May and June, there has been minimal activity since then.
Ultimate Poker isn’t doing anything particularly unique, but the launch of the Ultimate Poker Live Series and tournament leaderboards has fostered slight growth.
Tournament Turnouts Tell Familiar Story
There wasn’t much change in the online tournament scene this week, as most weekend majors performed roughly the same as they did the previous week.
While some tournaments saw a decrease in performance from one week to the next, this was balanced out by other tournaments that showed slight improvements.
Here’s an overview of the performance of some of NV’s largest weekly tournaments (figures for August 9-10 in parenthesis):
- The WSOP.com Weekend Warm-Up, with a $55 Rebuy and Add-on (R&A) and a $5,000 guarantee, attracted 38 participants. There were 40 rebuys and 25 add-ons, leading to a prize pool of $5,150. The total amount collected was $5,450.
- 86 participants came together to form a $17,200 prize pool for WSOP.com’s $15k Guarantee with a $215 buy-in. ($18,400)
- Despite attracting a decent number of participants (97) in the Ultimate Poker $10,000 Sunday, UP’s weekly major fell short of its guarantee by $1,173. The shortfall amounted to $536.
Where Does Volume Go From Here?
As I’ve previously stated, it’s unlikely that the volume on WSOP will drop any further. Though I’ve been wrong in the past (on occasion), there are several signs that support my prediction:
- Traditionally, the online poker market starts to recover in September.
- The current roll-out of WSOP’s September promotional schedule could hardly be more uninspiring.
- The introduction of PokerStars in New Jersey will force existing operators to enhance their performance.
- Similarly, when PokerStars enters the market, WSOP NJ will probably drop to third place. However, it might strive to maintain its top position in Nevada.
- Liquidity is just about 5% higher than its annual low point.
Under these specific conditions, I find it difficult to believe that the average traffic on WSOP NV will drop below 100 by October 1st.
However, as with most things, time will reveal the truth.
