Nevada’s burgeoning regulated poker industry has had a turbulent year, characterized by extreme peaks, unstable trends, and ambiguity.
Nevada’s iGaming scene has experienced a five-month slump, significantly affecting its cash-game volume, which has dropped to its lowest levels since before WSOP.com became the state’s second regulated poker site. This downturn began just weeks after online poker went live in New Jersey last November, marking a peak in Nevada’s iGaming activity.
The situation is further exacerbated because, at the time of writing this, the downtrend is still ongoing.
However, those who advocate for regulated poker are hopeful that Nevada’s gaming operators will correct or at least steady the situation before it worsens. Although no one can definitively predict Nevada’s position after another year in the regulated market, we can surely make educated guesses about its future.
Let’s do just that.
In the near-term, WSOP.com will become the only heavily trafficked poker site in Nevada
WSOP.com has been the market leader since surpassing Ultimate Poker in early November and hasn’t looked back since. Currently, WSOP controls 60 percent of the market’s cash-game traffic and has larger tournament turnout numbers than its only competitor.
In addition, WSOP.com has positioned itself as the second largest network and arguably the most frequented single site in New Jersey. This suggests a promising future for WSOP if New Jersey decides to form a compact with the Silver State.
Let’s delve into pure speculation now: If Pennsylvania decides to legalize online poker, it’s probable that Harrah’s Philadelphia will be represented by WSOP.com. This would open the potential for WSOP to share liquidity across three states.
WSOP’s significantly advanced poker software and recognizable brand have already raised it above Ultimate Poker. When you take into account the benefits of a larger player pool, it certainly emerges as a much more appealing choice for Nevada grinders.
888 may pose a threat to the very site it services
However, there is one potential complication to consider.
888 Holdings, the provider of the poker platform for WSOP.com in New Jersey and Nevada, also runs its own branded site on a distinct network – the All American Poker Network, which is exclusive to New Jersey. Additionally, the company is responsible for operating Delaware’s three online poker rooms, all of which are part of the 888 brand.
Are you feeling puzzled? Don’t fret, I’m about to get to the main point.
It is assumed that 888 will need to establish its own branded poker room in Nevada before it can share player liquidity with Delaware, because of the differentiation between 888 and WSOP.com. Consequently, WSOP.com would not be included in the initial interstate compact of U.S. regulated poker.
Moreover, if 888 establishes a presence in Nevada, it could potentially enjoy the same competitive advantage as WSOP.com in terms of a possible shared liquidity agreement with New Jersey. This means that the existing competition between the two in the Garden State could also expand into the Silver State.
However, it’s possible that 888 and WSOP.com may merge into a single network. This would likely be the most logical move from a business standpoint.
Nevada will enter into a shared liquidity agreement with New Jersey by year’s end
A deal permitting Delaware and Nevada to share online poker liquidity was signed in February. This unprecedented victory for regulated online poker is expected to be implemented in late-2014.
In addition to other conditions, the deal also establishes a structure for other states to participate. Currently, New Jersey is the only other state that has a regulated iPoker scene.
However, until recently, officials from New Jersey have avoided commenting on the possibility of the Garden State joining the mix. Many believed that New Jersey’s significant population, compared to the combined population of Delaware and Nevada, was the main reason behind NJ’s indifference.
Cash-game figures in New Jersey are on a downward spiral, indicating a potential change of heart among the state’s representatives. This is suggested by a recent statement made by DGE consultant Mario Galea to CalvinAyre.com.
In the interview, Galea stated that New Jersey’s systems were ready to “share data among states”. He highlighted that the foundation for an interstate compact has been set up in NJ. He also announced that it’s probable for NJ to join a multi-state compact by the end of 2014.
Though it’s highly improbable that New Jersey players will compete against those from Silver State in 2014, the only feasible way for New Jersey to match California’s upcoming regulated iPoker market is by taking swift action. Forming a compact with Nevada and Delaware appears to be a sensible initial move.
Nevada will buck the seasonal trend
Typically, online poker traffic decreases during the spring, reaching its minimum around June, and then progressively increases through the summer and fall.
However, several signs indicate that Nevada will not experience the same seasonal downturn as its industry peers.
Primarily, online poker flourished in Nevada in June last year. Yet, this could be simply due to the volatile nature of emerging markets. Despite this, cash-game traffic in Nevada didn’t reach the same peak as it did in late June until early October, when another online poker room was added. There’s a possibility that this trend could recur in 2014.
Furthermore, the world’s largest tournament series – the WSOP, will greatly increase the number of poker players in town. Some of these players will be eager to play online during their free time.
Remember, the main reason online poker tends to slump in the spring is because of the nicer weather. However, Nevada’s summers are famously harsh. In fact, the heat can be so intense that some days, players prefer to stay inside rather than face the heat.
Lastly, Nevada generally experiences a surge in tourism during the summer. Although it seems unlikely for the average Joe to be engrossed in WSOP.com while on vacation with his family, we’ve witnessed more surprising events.
If Delaware and Nevada implement their compact sooner than anticipated, it could potentially give Nevada a slight increase in traffic. Though not likely, it’s still a possibility. This is just a side note.
Gaming operators new to Nevada will not be profitable
Currently, Nevada may not be large enough to successfully support more than one or two profitable online poker sites. This could potentially change as Nevada players gain access to players from other states. However, as it stands, new operators are unlikely to succeed.
This point is clearly illustrated by Real Gaming’s unsuccessful attempt to penetrate Nevada’s iPoker market.
If you’re asking yourself, “Who’s Real?” – well…exactly.
Hoping for a prosperous second year for regulated gambling in Nevada.
